The rise of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) marks one of the most significant shifts in transportation, yet their integration into public transport (PT) systems is still in its early stages. While AVs have already begun to operate in various parts of the world, their full potential remains a subject of both opportunities and uncertainty. Can they truly transform public transport? What opportunities do they present, and what risks do they carry? This post explores these questions by looking at how AVs are already being integrated into urban mobility systems and their future role in enhancing public transport, especially in underserved areas.

Autonomous-vehicle-in-front-of-a-subway-station
Autonomous shuttle in front of a subway station. Image generated with ChatGPT

The Disrupting Force

AVs are not a futuristic dream anymore. Cities around the world, especially in the United States and China, have already begun to embrace autonomous vehicles. In the U.S., companies like Waymo are leading the way, with Waymo One offering a fully autonomous ride-hailing service in Phoenix, Arizona. Similarly, in China, companies such as Baidu and Pony.ai are running pilot programs in cities like Wuhan, Beijing and Guangzhou, with some services already performing tens of thousands of rides per month.

These pioneers are proving that autonomous vehicles are not just a concept – they are already disrupting the taxi industry in these cities. In fact, AVs are poised to reshape not only the way we move within cities but also how we integrate different modes of transport. Public transport, in particular, stands at a crossroads where AVs could either serve as a complement to existing services or pose a significant challenge to the status quo.

Will AVs enhance Public Transport? 

One of the most promising benefits of AVs in public transport is their potential to address long-standing challenges, especially the insufficient public transport service in rural and suburban areas. Traditional bus services often fail to cover low-demand areas effectively due to high operating costs and the logistical complexities involved. AVs, however, present a flexible and more cost-efficient solution. With no human driver required, these vehicles can better operate in low-density regions on-demand, connecting residents with mass transit hubs during off-peak hours or in places where scheduled bus lines are not viable.

Take the example of Hamburger Hochbahn in Germany. The public transport provider is about to test autonomous minibuses in Hamburg’s suburban areas as part of a pilot project that aims to integrate AVs into the city’s wider public transport system. By connecting these autonomous shuttles with the existing mass rapid transit network, commuters can access convenient, on-demand services, especially during times when regular buses or trains aren’t running. This integration is not just about improving the user experience; it also helps to optimize the use of resources, making public transport more sustainable and affordable.

Companies like MOIA, a subsidiary of Volkswagen, are already experimenting with this concept with their electric ride-pooling service in Hamburg. The integration of AVs with such services could make public transport more attractive in areas where fixed schedules and routes are too expensive to maintain but where demand for on-demand services is high.

Not far away from Hamburg RMV KIRA is leading the charge jointly with Deutsche Bahn’s IOKI brand with a project aimed at integrating AVs into public transport systems across the Rhine-Main region. 

In essence, AVs could provide a solution where traditional services are either inefficient or impossible to implement. According to studies, these autonomous shuttles can serve as a crucial link between communities and larger urban centers, particularly in areas where population density doesn’t justify frequent, fixed-route bus services.

The Efficiency of Ride-Pooling: Boosting the Effectiveness of AVs

But AVs aren’t just about replacing traditional buses. When combined with ride-pooling technology, autonomous vehicles can significantly enhance the efficiency of public transport. Imagine a scenario where AVs autonomously pick up passengers heading in the same direction, dynamically grouping them to optimize routes. This model not only reduces the number of vehicles on the road, helping to alleviate congestion, but it also reduces operational costs while maintaining high service quality.

Potential Risks: What Could Go Wrong?

While the benefits are clear, AVs in public transport also come with risks—risks that need careful consideration if we are to maximize their potential without disrupting the mobility ecosystem.

The Rebound Effect

One major concern is a potential rebound effect. The lower operational costs of AVs could lead to an increase in vehicle miles traveled. This could worsen traffic congestion, as more people might opt for on-demand, lower-cost options rather than traditional public transport or active modes like cycling or walking. This effect has been noticed with the arrival of Uber in New York City. If not managed correctly, this could negate some of the environmental benefits that AVs offer by encouraging more people to use them for short trips that would otherwise be taken on public transport or by bicycle or foot.

Job Displacement

Another issue is the displacement of drivers, particularly in industries like taxis and public transit. Millions of driving jobs are at risk, and the transition could lead to significant economic and social challenges. Many of these drivers may not have the skills to easily transition to new roles, potentially leading to increased unemployment and inequality. A careful management of this transition will be essential to avoid mass unemployment.

Moreover, while AVs may eliminate the need for most drivers, certain roles – such as providing assistance to passengers with mobility impairments – will still require human intervention. The challenge here will be to ensure that those who remain in the workforce are empowered and enabled to perform these vital tasks.

The Key to Success – Integration, Not Replacement

For AVs to be truly effective in public transport, they need to be integrated into existing public transport systems, not seen as a replacement. Public transport authorities should take the lead in managing AV fleets, ensuring that they complement traditional services like buses and trains, especially in low-demand periods or areas that are currently underserved.

This integration is a complex challenge. Public transport operators will need to consider everything from vehicle integration to service and process design, pricing, integration into existing booking platforms, quality management, customer care, infrastructure development, insurance, and financing. Key technology providers like Waymo or Mobileye offer promising solutions, but the real success will come from a holistic service package that helps public transport authorities navigate these complexities in unchartered territories.

Platforms for Different Needs

Looking ahead, the future of public transport with AVs is not about isolated, self-driving cars; it’s about creating a seamless, multi-modal mobility ecosystem. This means offering various AV sizes, from small 4-seater shuttles to larger “road trains” that can transport larger numbers of people. AV platform providers offer vehicles of different sizes serving different needs: HOLON, for example, provides an autonomous shuttle solution that is well-suited for urban environments, while eVersum for example offers a modular system that can be tailored to different needs with higher passenger capacity.

The success of AVs in public transport will depend on the cooperation between transport authorities and technology providers. Public transport authorities must not only adopt new technologies but also offer a customer-centric service model that integrates AVs into their existing fleet, ultimately enhancing the entire customer journey and complementing their existing offers.

Conclusion: Embrace the Change, But Manage It Wisely

As MIT professor and founder of MIT’s Mobility Forum, Prof. Jinhua Zhao aptly points out, municipalities must play a proactive role in managing the deployment of AVs, ensuring that they meet the needs of their communities while complementing existing public transport systems. For AVs to be a true game changer in public transport, authorities must invest in not just the vehicles themselves but in a comprehensive approach that integrates AVs with other modes of transport, creating a seamless, efficient, and sustainable system.

The future of public transport is not just about technology – it’s about creating a system that enhances mobility for all, regardless of where people live or what time of day they need to travel. With careful planning, AVs could indeed become a game changer for public transport, making it more accessible, affordable, and efficient.

Autonomous Vehicles – A Game Changer for Public Transport?
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